As instructed by Supreme Leader Ali Khameini, Iran’s nuclear negotiators, writes Ali Vaez in a post at Reuters titled How the Senate Republicans’ letter gave Iran a boost in nuclear talks, “are trying to tie up all ambiguities in the agreement to ensure that no aspect will be open to interpretation.” Read mis-interpretation.
Moreover, just as Washington insists on a role for the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor Iran’s implementation of its commitments, Tehran insists on establishing a mechanism to monitor Washington’s performance on sanctions relief.
How does Tehran seek to effect that? The United States isn’t offering to end sanctions, just suspend them. Thus, writes Vaez:
… since suspension of sanctions is more reversible than their termination, the Iranians insist on maintaining sufficient leverage of their own in the form of thousands of centrifuges. … Iranian leaders calculate that maintaining a meaningful enrichment capacity might deter the U.S. from reneging on its part of the bargain.
Tehran’s second initiative, as explained by Vaez, is even more savvy (emphasis added)
… instead of focusing on unilateral U.S. sanctions, the Iranian negotiators have gone after the UN Security Council sanctions that legitimize the American ones. The logic is that if the next U.S. president revokes the nuclear deal [cf. “the letter” — RW] and tries to re-impose sanctions without the legitimacy bestowed by the UN, he/she will have a much harder time rallying international support behind enforcing the restrictions.
Taking that one step further …
… Iranian negotiators demand that a roadmap for lifting the U.S. sanctions during the agreement must be codified by a UN Security Council resolution. This would make any American infringement of it a breach of an obligation under international law.
And yet another …
They have, moreover, indicated they intend to make the Iranian parliament’s ratification of the Additional Protocol to the Nonproliferation Treaty that provides the UN inspectors with enhanced access to nuclear sites and scientists contingent on prior legislative action in U.S. Congress to terminate some specific sanctions.
Returning to the now infamous letter from 47 Republican senators, you can see how Tehran has covered all the bases …
Seen from Tehran, therefore, the letter has strengthened Iran’s negotiating position. It also gives Tehran an edge in any blame-game that would inevitably follow a still-possible failure to reach a comprehensive accord. It will now be much easier to portray U.S. demands as excessive and maximalist than it was before the letter, and before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to Congress last week.
That last is a key point made by other analysts who warn the United States against alienating Europe over Iran.