Articles by Paul Rogers

Could the War Go Nuclear?

February 17, 2003 | There has been an assumption, based on all the reports of troop movements and President Bush's increasingly insistent tone, that war with Iraq is imminent.

Iran: the Next Target?

January 31, 2003 | President Bush's State of the Union address comes as near to a declaration of war on Iraq as is possible without the guns beginning to fire.

The Prospects for al Qaeda

January 24, 2003 | Once again, we are faced with a situation in which all the emphasis in the war on terror is focused on pre-emption and capture--beating the terrorists into submission. Meanwhile, there is scarcely any focus on the reasons for the groundswell of support fo

Iraq: Has the Prospect of War Faded?

December 1, 2002 | Regimes may loudly proclaim their fears of a war, yet privately allow the U.S. some leeway, and even give tentative support for its war plans.

Lessons from Mombasa: Al Qaeda’s Long-term Strategy

December 1, 2002 | The al Qaeda phenomenon is best seen as an association of like-minded groups operating in many countries with some loose coordination, with more centralized training, financing, and technical expertise available when required.

The Oil Reckoning

December 1, 2002 | All of the political signals coming out of Washington indicate a conflict within the next three months, and there are numerous indications that the final phase of the build-up of military forces is imminent.

After Bali, The Need to Understand

October 1, 2002 | From Yemen to Kuwait and Pakistan, is the entanglement of the U.S. in the Islamic world actually serving the group's long-term strategy?