Bangladesh, the world’s second-largest powerhouse of textiles after China, is poised to elect a new leader in the parliamentary elections slated for February 12. The country has been without an elected government since the ouster of Prime Minister Hasina Wajid in August 2024. Hasina was toppled in weeks-long public protests in which, according to the United Nations, security forces killed 1,400 people. The protests known as the July Uprising were led by Nahid Islam, a young scholar of sociology at the University of Dhaka. Nahid, who now leads the National Citizen Party (NCP), is running for parliament. So are 30 members of his party.
Although 51 political parties are participating, the February elections have become a three-way race between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), and the National Citizen Party (NCP). The BNP, led by former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia for decades, is in the lead in public opinion polls. Time magazine believes Tarique Rahman, a son of Khaleda Zia who succeeded his mother as leader of the BNP, is the front-runner in the race for prime minister. The JI is the closest second to the BNP, and the NCP comes in a distant third. The Washington, D.C.-based International Republican Institute (IRI) reported in December 2025 that 30 percent of Bangladeshis would likely vote for the BNP, 26 percent for the JI, and 6 percent for the NCP. A recent poll from January 12 shows a similar pattern with the BNP scoring 34.7 percent of votes, JI, 33.6 percent, and NCP, 7 percent.
A slight bump in the poll numbers for all three parties, since December 2025, can be explained by defections from the Awami League (AL), a party that former prime minister Hasina Wajid leads. Despite being banned from politics, the AL’s “likeability” among Bangladeshis stands at 25 percent, while 40 percent of the population “dislikes” it. AL supporters are now gravitating towards the BNP in the largest number (33 percent), followed by the JI (13 percent), while 41 percent of them are sitting on the fence. The latest poll released on January 30 reveals that the race is fast turning in favor of the BNP, which now polls 52.8 percent of votes, while the JI’s share stays stable in the lower thirties. These polls are, however, a national barometer, which do not necessarily tell much about the 298 parliamentary constituencies spanning 64 districts of the country, where retail politics prevails.
Yet there are certain events that took place back-to-back in December 2025 that seem to have boosted the BNP’s electoral fortunes. Tarique Rahman, the BNP’s incumbent leader who was in exile in Britain for 17 years, returned home to Bangladesh on December 25, which many saw as the second coming of Christ. His welcome rally at the Dhaka airport drew more than a million of his fans and supporters. At the rally, he invoked Martin Luther King Jr. and spun his “I-have-a-dream” speech into his own chant of “I have a plan.” Tarique’s plan is to build a safe Bangladesh, heal its divisions, and unleash a tide of development that lifts all boats. Before ending his speech, he asked his audience to pray for the health of his mother, Khaleda Zia, who was convalescing in a hospital nearby.
Five days later, on December 30, Khaleda Zia died at the age of 80. Bangladesh gave her a state funeral. The next day, millions of people turned up to bid her farewell. The top diplomats of the U.S. embassy in Dhaka attended the funeral. So did the ambassadors of Australia, Britain, Brazil, Canada, China, Iran, Russia, and the European Union. The eight-member South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) sent their foreign ministers and personal emissaries to offer condolences. The only no-show was the Taliban-occupied Afghanistan.
India, whose relations with Bangladesh have cooled since the ouster of Hasina Wajid, sent its minister for external affairs, bearing a moving letter of condolence from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Tarique Rahman. Modi addressed Tarique as Saheb, an honorific that south Asians use in utmost deference to someone higher in status, and paid generous tribute to Khaleda Zia. Following the funeral, all world leaders and world ambassadors paid condolence calls upon Tarique that continued for weeks.
His return from exile and the worshipful reverence shown to his mother raised Tarique Rahman’s profile and deepened people’s interest in his party. He has since continued to be treated as de facto prime minister. Diplomats from powerful nations seem to place him even above the incumbent leader of the Bangladesh government, Nobel-laureate Muhammad Yunus. Newly appointed U.S. Ambassador Brent Christensen called on Tarique Rahman on January 19 before meeting Yunus, three days after. The Indian minister for external affairs, after meeting with the BNP leader, didn’t even bother to see Yunus, although Yunus enjoys far greater goodwill around the world as the architect of microfinancing and founder of the Grameen Bank. Despite a torrent of global attention, Tarique Rahman is not taking the elections for granted. He is toiling day and night, barnstorming the country to earn every single vote.
The BNP’s major battle is to win the youth’s vote. Demographically, it is considered a party of “the mature,” i.e., boomers and Gen X (45 and older). Its closest rival, the JI, fishes in the same waters but has also been more popular among the youth. In December 2025, the Islami Chhatra Shibir, the JI’s affiliated student group, swept elections in the country’s four major public universities, including the University of Dhaka. This political shift is a reaction to the Hasina government’s militant secularism and violent suppression of moderate Islamic voices, which encouraged religious extremism and even terrorism in an otherwise pacifist nation. The Shibir’s victory gives the JI a strong foothold with Gen Z (those under 30. Considering the JI’s growing influence among Gen Z, the NCP was forced to forge an electoral alliance with it. Although the NCP has lock on the vote of Gen Z, which makes up a quarter of the country’s 128 million voters, it needs to widen its appeal to the older demographics for which its alliance with the JI may help.
The JI’s “women problem,” however, can stop it in its tracks. In recent weeks, Jamaat leaders made some offensive remarks about feminism that are likely to haunt them. By default, the BNP has become a safe harbor for women. Tarique Rahman, the only surviving male member of his household, who all his life lived under the shadow of his powerful mother, is quite comfortable playing second fiddle to women. Zaima Rahman, his only offspring, is the rising star of the family and the BNP. She resembles in many ways her grandmother Khaleda Zia, who reared her since her childhood. In her early thirties and a barrister by profession, Zaima is more popular among the youth than her father. Also campaigning for Tarique is Syeda Sharmila Rahman, the widow of his younger brother. In this way, the women of Bangladesh will decide on February 12 which party to hand the keys of government.