This fall, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA), a unique pact with potentially far-reaching implications for the security of the Middle East and South Asia.
While the full details have not yet been released, the agreement suggests two critical shifts: Riyadh is seeking security guarantees beyond those provided by Washington, and Islamabad is potentially extending its nuclear umbrella abroad for the first time.
This agreement marks a significant shift in the power dynamics in the region, as both nations strive to enhance their strategic autonomy. The pact not only reflects declining U.S. influence but also introduces a new axis of cooperation bridging South Asia and the Middle East — one that could redefine how regional security and nuclear deterrence are managed outside Western-led frameworks.
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan: A Long Relationship
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan’s partnership has long combined economic, military, and religious dimensions. Since Pakistan’s independence in 1947, it has maintained a formal, on-and-off geopolitical relationship with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This relationship is predicated on Saudi Arabia providing financial support and oil, while Pakistan offers military assistance and a large amount of cheap labor.
A crucial example of this came in the 1980s, when both countries were aligned against the Iranian Revolution and Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. In 1990-1991, the Gulf crisis solidified the relationship between the two nations. Pakistan’s decision to send troops to defend Saudi Arabia was itself controversial at home, sparking protests and political debate over aligning too closely with Western and Gulf monarchies. Riyadh, in turn, provided political and financial backing when Islamabad tested nuclear weapons in 1998.
Though the relationship has experienced periods of strain — such as Pakistan’s refusal to back Saudi campaigns in Yemen and the 2017 Qatar blockade — it has ultimately endured despite Islamabad’s outreach to Iran and Turkey, which at times unsettled Riyadh.
Both nations continue to regard one another as essential strategic partners, with Saudi bailouts in 2018 and continued Pakistani military training of Saudi forces underscoring the resilience of the relationship.
A Multipolar Middle East
The SMDA comes at a moment of profound regional upheaval. While the Abraham Accords remain intact, the prospect of Saudi Arabia joining them has faded amid the Gaza war. At the same time, Israeli air strikes across Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran have further underscored the volatility of the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Washington’s reluctance to restrain Israel or defend one of its non-NATO allies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has eroded its role as the region’s security guarantor. Israel’s most recent strike on Doha was particularly significant: by targeting a U.S.-aligned state without repercussions, it highlighted the vacuum Riyadh now seeks to fill through alternative alliances.
From the Saudi perspective, the United States’ unwillingness to protect a Gulf nation, especially one so closely tied to the U.S., signified a broader security risk throughout the Gulf. Since the initial announcement of the SMDA, the U.S. has announced an executive order pledging to defend Qatar — though this is easily reversible by a future administration — which further solidifies Washington’s attempt to reassure Gulf allies amid doubts about its reliability.
Its timing, following Israeli strikes and the announcement of the Saudi-Pakistani defense pact, underscores Riyadh’s move to diversify security partnerships in an increasingly multipolar Middle East.
To be sure, Saudi Arabia’s efforts to diversify its security relationships do not signal a shift away from Washington. Riyadh continues to view the United States as its most important defense partner and ultimate security guarantor — a reality underscored by Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman’s landmark visit to Washington last month, his first since March 2018. That visit yielded a proposed F-35 fighter jet deal and a more formalized security partnership, with Saudi Arabia becoming the fourth member of the GCC to receive Major Non-NATO Ally status.
From the Saudi leadership’s perspective, the SMDA with Pakistan is not pursued at the expense of its historic partnership with the U.S., but rather as a complementary option that advances Riyadh’s broader strategy of diversifying security partnerships while maximizing strategic flexibility.
An “Islamic NATO”?
Despite its promise, the agreement carries several risks that could complicate the strategic ambitions of both states.
By hinting that the pact encompasses “all military means,” Pakistan risks drawing international scrutiny over the possibility that it has extended its nuclear deterrent abroad. This ambiguity, while serving as a deterrent, could also destabilize regional security perceptions by fueling fears of nuclear proliferation, provoking rival arms buildups, and increasing the risk of miscalculation among regional powers.
For Saudi Arabia, a deeper alignment with Islamabad increases the risk of being drawn into South Asian conflicts, particularly in the context of India-Pakistan tensions. Although Riyadh has sought to maintain strong economic and energy ties with New Delhi, its third-largest trading partner, the SMDA could strain this balance by signaling a tilt toward Pakistan in the regional security landscape. India may also view the pact as a potential threat to its strategic interests, especially if Saudi access to Pakistani defense technologies or intelligence systems expands.
Conversely, Pakistan could find itself entangled in Middle Eastern rivalries and proxy conflicts that it has historically sought to avoid. Riyadh’s assurances that the SMDA will not jeopardize its $31 billion trade relationship with India underscore its need to balance competing priorities, but this balance may prove difficult to sustain.
Furthermore, early discussions of the agreement as the foundation for an “Islamic NATO” introduce uncertainty about whether the SMDA could evolve into a broader military alliance, potentially exacerbating regional polarization rather than enhancing collective security. This uncertainty stems from the lack of clarity about the pact’s scope, membership, and command structure.
Neither Riyadh nor Islamabad has specified whether other Muslim-majority states would be invited to join or how such an alliance would operate, only that a significant attack on one’s sovereignty would be an attack on the other. This ambiguity leaves regional actors uncertain whether the SMDA represents a limited bilateral arrangement or the early stages of a larger bloc, raising concerns that it could exacerbate sectarian and geopolitical divisions rather than promote collective defense in the region
Conclusion
The Saudi–Pakistan SMDA is more than a bilateral defense pact — it reflects a regional order in flux. As U.S. disengagement accelerates, states are seeking new, sometimes risky, security arrangements to safeguard their regimes and deter rivals.
For Riyadh, the agreement provides autonomy and protection in an increasingly hostile environment. For Islamabad, it delivers economic flexibility and leverage but also exposes it to new vulnerabilities.