War & Peace

The Forgotten War Shows No Sign of Abating

Less than an hour before the initial bombs and cruise missiles rained down on Baghdad in the first volleys of the Iraq war, the U.S. military launched a major attack in its other war in Afghanistan. Pentagon spokespersons insisted that the timing of the attack was “a coincidence” and that planning for the operation had been going on for months. However, it seems clear that this escalation of U.S. military activity serves a dual purpose: to assuage the fears of those concerned that the U.S. would lose interest in Afghanistan after the onset of the war in Iraq and to send a clear signal to anti-American forces in Afghanistan and the wider region that the war on terror would not lose momentum. More than anything, though, the operation illustrates that the ongoing war in Afghanistan–involving 11,000 coalition troops, 8,000 of which are American–is far from over.

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Who Will Govern Iraq?

With Baghdad having fallen and the territorial consolidation of Iraq near at hand, discussion of the postwar period has intensified dramatically. The debate has provoked splits at various levels, within the United Nations, within the vaunted “coalition of the willing,” and even within the U.S. government. The acrimony that has surrounded this debate shows that even with victory in the war assured, wining the peace will be a more arduous task. How Iraq is governed and rebuilt in the first two years following the war’s conclusion may determine whether, in the rhetoric of the Bush administration, it is transformed into a beacon of democracy for the Arab world or, as many Middle East experts and observers fear, it sparks a wave of violent and destabilizing unrest in the region. In light of the monumental significance of this enterprise, it is important to examine the potential models for postwar governance in Iraq and to assess their effectiveness and impact. An examination of public statements issued by policymakers who will shape the postwar dispensation, along with an analysis of previous cases of post-conflict state building–such as post-World War II Germany and Japan, the Balkans in the 1990s, and, most recently, Afghanistan–provides a basis upon which to construct models of governance for Iraq. The model ultimately implemented will vary significantly from the theoretical constructs presented in this paper. However, the purpose of this analysis is not to predict the shape and structure of the postwar administration; it is intended to elucidate the demands and dangers of the postwar environment as a guide to state building.

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Iraq War Unleashes Barbarism

So much for winning the cold war. And so much for a world united behind the War on Terror. A poll this weekend showed that 80% of Russians want Iraq to defeat the United States. Polls across the Arab world show the same, and it is likely that in much of the world outside the Western democracies there would be similar numbers rooting for the victory of a blood-thirsty tyrant and certified aggressor.

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A Disaster Unfolding in Iraq

One would have thought Washington had learned from the 1961 Bay of Pigs fiasco that you can’t really trust exiles who assure you that their people will greet you enthusiastically as liberators and rise up against the regime. Despite optimistic predictions, there have thus far been no mass defections of Iraqi soldiers, there have been no spontaneous uprisings against Saddam Hussein, and U.S. and British soldiers attempting to enter Iraqi cities have been met not by cheers and flowers but by bullets and grenades. And this has all taken place in predominantly Shi’ite-populated sections of southern Iraq long considered a center of opposition to Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship.

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The Psychological War at Home and Abroad

As the Bush administration abandoned the psychology of diplomacy and war with Iraq became certain, the U.S. public was repeatedly assured that the battle plan would produce rosy results. This pro-war psychology was occasionally tempered by warnings that, inevitably, some U.S. service persons might be killed. What the public was not prepared for psychologically, because it was never mentioned, was the equally likely event that Americans would become prisoners of war.

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We’re all Americans: Why the Europeans Are Against This War

The continent has witnessed an unprecedented political attack on the authority of the United Nations, committed by a clan that–in the opinion of a predominant majority of Europeans–occupies the White House illegally. Regardless, if the majority of Europeans are against this war it isn’t because of sympathies for a murderous dictator like Saddam Hussein and it’s definitely not because of anti-Americanism. The massive demonstrations in Europe, which brought approximately eleven million Europeans onto the streets in the middle of February, are an expression of the disappointment with a country–the USA–which until now has represented an ideal for all committed democrats and has enjoyed unrestricted sympathies after the terrible attacks of 9/11.

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Is North Korea Next?

A serial invader is always looking over the horizon for the next target. The new U.S. rationale for invasion–the doctrine of “preventive war” that flies in the face of international law–justifies invasion anywhere, anytime. With the war launched in Iraq, the Bush administration appears to be laying the groundwork for its next move: an attack on North Korea.

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Multilateralism Under Siege

As the war proceeds in Iraq, debates have already begun over the impact that the war will have on the economy. Perhaps lost amidst this debate is the key question raised by Business Week this week in a lead article headlined “The High Price of Bad Diplomacy.” Citing growing fears about instability and the implications of an open-ended “Bush Doctrine” to fight evil and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) wherever they raise their heads, it noted with characteristic understatement, “It is not a picture conducive to worldwide economic growth and prosperity,” citing as an example the long-running economic impact of the Vietnam War on the 1970s U.S. economy. “It may even get worse than that,” the magazine’s editorial page editor Bruce Nussbaum went on. “Chief executives are beginning to worry that globalization may not be compatible with a foreign policy of unilateral pre-emption.”

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