Key Points
Opportunities, Risks, and the Issue of Taiwan
read more
War & Peace
August Around the World
The song speaks of “those lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer.”
The prevailing sentiment, less “laid back,” refers to “the dog days of summer” from which the rich and well-connected have historically sought relief by getting out of town. Indeed, one can easily picture Caesar Augustus—in whose honor the Roman Senate renamed and lengthened the sixth month in the Julian calendar—abandoning Rome in the same way Congress and the president flee Washington.
Bombings and Repression in Egypt Underscore Failures in U.S. Anti-Terrorism Strategy
The devastating bombings which struck the Egyptian city of Sharm al-Sheik on July 24 underscore both the extent of the threat from Islamist terrorists and the failure of the United States and its allies to effectively deal with it.
Security Council Reform Debate Highlights Challenges Facing UN
Within a day of arriving at the United Nations John Bolton, the former lobbyist for Taiwan and advocate for one permanent seat on the Security Council, the United States, had cut a deal with the Chinese representative. China wants to stop an additional permanent Security Council seat for Japan. The United States had promised Japan its support in return for its loyalty over Iraq, but hated Germany more than it loves Japan. So the two agreed to thwart the attempt by the G-4 (Brazil, Germany, India, and Japan), to secure permanent seats during the current reform proposals.
The Bush Administration and Iran’s New President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s election victory in late June was a surprise
for pundits both inside and outside Iran. Not only did the proverbial favorite
Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani not win, but the turnout was around 60% in both rounds,
so the much-debated election boycott did not reduce participation to historic
lows. Ahmadinejad, Tehran’s mayor, with the help of the security-military
apparatus, mobilized his conservative base in the first round of balloting
to force an unprecedented second-round runoff against Hashemi-Rafsanjani. The
mayor then reached out to the political independent masses to win over 60%
of the vote. The unpredictability and close nature of the result (as well as
of Mohammad Khatami’s victory in 1997) are especially significant in
the Middle East, where elections, when they do occur, are often formalities.1
The U.S. and Iran: Democracy, Terrorism, and Nuclear Weapons
The election of the hard-line Teheran mayor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, over
former President Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani as the new head of Iran is
undeniably a setback for those hoping to advance greater social and political
freedom in that country. It should not necessarily be seen as a turn to the
right by the Iranian electorate, however. The 70-year old Rafsanjani—a cleric
and penultimate wheeler-dealer from the political establishment—was portrayed
as the more moderate conservative. The fact that he had become a millionaire
while in government was apparently seen as less important than his modest reform
agenda. By contrast, the young Teheran mayor focused on the plight of the poor
and cleaning up corruption.
Bush Administration Stokes Dangerous Arms Race on Indian Subcontinent
For more than two decades, arms control experts have argued that the most likely scenario for the hostile use of nuclear weapons was not between the former Cold War superpower rivals, an act of terrorism by an underground terrorist group, or the periodically threatened unilateral U.S. attack against a “rogue state,” but between India and Pakistan. These two South Asian rivals have fought each other in three major wars—in 1947, 1965, and 1971—and have engaged in frequent border clashes in recent years in the disputed Kashmir region, coming close to another all-out war as recently as 2002.
General Abizaid, I’m Glad You Asked
In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on June 23, General John Abizaid, head of Central Command, told the committee: “Maybe it’s something we’re not doing right in the field. But I can tell you that when my soldiers … ask me the question whether or not they’ve got support from the American people or not, that worries me. And they’re starting to do that. So I would say we better have a frank discussion with ourselves. I am not against the debate.”
India Moves Toward a New Compact with the United States
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh begins his visit to the United States next week amidst indications that India is preparing to shed the last vestiges of its earlier policy of non-alignment and enter into a stronger, indeed unprecedented, “strategic partnership” with Washington. This would see the two countries launch joint military operations in the future, especially in the Asian continent, and collaborate politically and diplomatically to contain China. More generally, the United States would strategically “embed” itself in Asia through an alliance with India.
A Strategy for Ending the Iraq War
“When you’re in the middle of a conflict, you’re trying to find pillars of strength to lean on.”