War, the expression goes, is a bad business. It’s certainly not a good idea if you’re a soldier or civilian caught in the middle, and it tends to wreak havoc with things like domestic spending. But if you are Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, or former Joint Chiefs of Staff chair, Admiral (ret.) William Crowe Jr., these are salad days.
Sixteen months after the attacks of 11 September, what is the status of al Qaeda and what are its prospects? Earlier articles concluded that the organization remained active, was retaining a strategic sense of direction, and, among other things, trying to draw Israel into a wider conflict. While all of these points remain pertinent, it also makes sense to attempt a more general analysis, not least in the light of the aftermath of the war in Afghanistan.
A U.S. military spokesman reported on January 13th that Special Forces soldiers had discovered hundreds of pounds of explosives buried in feed sacks in the eastern Afghanistan city of Jalalabad. The discovery comes on the heels of a decision by the American commander in Afghanistan to expand security- and reconstruction-related missions beyond Kabul, the capital. This shift will improve Afghan stability, but critics say it stops short of a full solution.
The victory of the liberal Roh Moo-Hyun in the December 19th South Korean presidential elections has been presented in the western media as a source of future tension in South Korean-U.S. relations. Roh, a long-time liberal and human rights advocate, when compared to his more conservative opponent, Lee Hoi-Chang, does represent a more challenging partner for future South Korean-U.S. relations. Roh’s stated aims include continuing the “Sunshine Policy” of engagement with North Korea, renegotiating the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) for the 37,000 U.S. troops in South Korea, and maintaining a more independent foreign policy in international and regional affairs. However, it is difficult to argue that anything Roh does could place more tension on the South Korea-U.S. relationship than the Bush administration’s unilateral foreign policy.
An analysis of the status of al Qaeda published a month ago, entitled Is al Qaeda winning?, came to the conclusion that the organization had experienced disruption in Afghanistan as well as a number of recent reversals, but was, on balance, more active than 18 months ago. While major attacks in Paris, Rome, Singapore, and elsewhere had been prevented, their very planning demonstrated the power of the organization and its affiliates. Moreover, many other attacks had succeeded in their aims–not least the Bali bombing, the attack on the Tunisian synagogue, several bombings in Pakistan, and assaults in Yemen.
The Bush administration has finally laid out a formal strategy document on combating weapons of mass destruction. It has recently issued a reminder of its policy that warns any nation using weapons of mass destruction against the United States or its allies that it will face massive retaliation, perhaps with nuclear weapons. An official says the policy statement is part of President Bush’s effort to deal with threats from “rogue nations” and terrorists alike. By rehabilitating the term rogue to describe states Washington considers beyond the pale of the “civilized” political community, President Bush has brought the “Rogue Nations” phrase back into global fashion.
NATO’s first summit in Eastern Europe was held in the same city where the Warsaw Pact was buried. “Prague, once the victim of the Warsaw Pact, became the city where the Warsaw Pact met its end as an instrument of the cold war,” Czech President Vaclav Havel proudly claimed in 1991.
The daring attacks last week on Israeli interests in Kenya sent shock waves throughout the East African region. The United States was obviously also deeply perturbed. Three East African leaders were immediately summoned to Washington for discussions with President George W Bush. Two, Kenya’s President Daniel Arap Moi and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Meles Zennawi, accepted the invitation. A third, Djibouti’s President Omar Guelleh, declined the invitation to join Moi and Zennawi at the White House on the pretext that he had to be in his country to celebrate the end of the holy month of Ramadan. Djibouti, an Arab League member state, is strategically situated on the crossroads between the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa. More than 95% of its population is Muslim and it is inhabited by ethnic Afar and the not-so-distantly related Somalis–an ethnic group that has unfortunately come under increasing scrutiny and suspicion for fomenting trouble in the region. Indeed, ethnic Somalis make up a large and restive minority in both Ethiopia and Kenya as well.
Global Vigilance in a Global Village: U.S. Expands Its Military Bases
With congressional support safely tucked away, it is now just a matter of time before the Bush administration invades Iraq. Since our recent track record of pummeling Third World countries is solid, it should be pretty much a slam-dunk. It’s afterwards that’s the tricky part.