Asia & Pacific Archives - Foreign Policy In Focus

Powell Punts in South Asia

by Arun Swamy | Aug 9, 2002

Neither U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell nor any other observers expected the Secretary’s visit to South Asia to produce a breakthrough in the tense standoff between the region’s nuclear-armed rivals. Powell’s failure to obtain any assurances of further concessions by either side cannot therefore said to be a disappointment. Surprisingly, however, the Secretary of State did make news. In India he called for India to allow international observers when it holds elections in Jammu and Kashmir this fall, and reportedly declared that Kashmir is now “on the international agenda.” In Pakistan he expressed the hope that these elections in Indian Kashmir would open the way for peace. Taken together the statements indicated an evolving U.S. position that neither likes–one that essentially ignores Pakistani calls for a plebiscite to determine the wishes of Kashmiris, while questioning India’s right to determine unilaterally that Kashmiri aspirations had been met.

U.S.-Russian Lessons for South Asia

by Zia Mian, R. Rajaraman, Frank Von Hippel | Aug 2, 2002

The current South Asian crisis seems to have ebbed, but the underlying dynamic remains. The next crisis will be even more dangerous if South Asia’s nuclear confrontation develops in the same direction as the U.S.-Russian standoff, with nuclear missiles on alert, aimed at each other and ready to launch on warning. As Lee Butler, former head of the U.S. Strategic Command, has said, the U.S. and Soviet Union survived their crises, “no thanks to deterrence, but only by the grace of God.” Will South Asia be so fortunate?

Australia’s Unseemly Grovel to a Worrying Ally

by James Dunn | Aug 1, 2002

During his recent trip to the United States Australian Prime Minister John Howard, in only the latest example of his blind loyalty to the United States, moved hastily to endorse the first strike (or “pre-emptive attack”) doctrine proposed by President Bush. This doctrine could be used to justify a preemptive nuclear strike by the United States. Although American concern with defending itself against further terrorist attacks is understandable, Washington still needs not only to abide by international rules, as set out in the UN Charter, but also to show the rest of the world the example of a responsible global citizen. In today’s world there is a strong emphasis on collective security, which, implicitly, means that no government, however powerful, should assume the right to use nuclear or biological weapons against another state or terrorist group, at least, in an emergency, without the endorsement of the Security Council. Personally I believe that the long-running principle of no first strike should still be observed. It helped keep nuclear weapons under control in the cold war, and should still apply today. But that limitation is not what Mr. Bush, Dick Cheney, and Donald Rumsfeld have in mind. It is yet another example of the Bush policy of placing the United States outside the United Nations and its laws.

Sustainable Farming: Faulty Lessons From America

by Devinder Sharma | Aug 1, 2002

There isn’t a time when an educated Indian doesn’t search for answers from “America–the dream land” for the problems that crop up time and again back home. Whether it is hunger, sustainable agriculture, kick-starting industrial growth, food habits, music, or of course the successful model of economic growth, India must follow the Americans. No wonder, the intelligentsia, the economists, and the scientists are always desperate for opportunities to travel and return with a bag full of answers to our multitude of problems.

Nuclear Brinkmanship Is Not Deterrence

by Rebecca Johnson | Aug 1, 2002

“Be ready for sacrifice. Your goal should be victory. It’s time to fight a decisive battle.” Thus spoke India’s Prime Minister Vajpayee on May 23, 2002, four years to the month since India’s nuclear tests shook the world but excited dancing in New Delhi’s streets. So much for nuclear weapons as a deterrent against war. General Musharraf, for his part, said that Pakistan did not want war, but “if war is thrust upon us, we would respond with full might.” Full might, when there are nuclear weapons on both sides, could mean tens of millions of people dead and severely injured, with India devastated and Pakistan essentially wiped out. What, then, would be left of Kashmir to fight over?

Arming India Isn’t Route to Peace

by Conn Hallinan | Aug 1, 2002

As tensions between India and Pakistan began building late last year, high-level delegations from the United States and Britain flew in and out of New Delhi and Karachi lobbying for peace. That’s not all they were lobbying for. With the scent of blood in the air, the arms jackals have poured into South Asia, sometimes in the suits of leading government officials.

Power Politics in Central Asia

by Sean Yom | Jul 1, 2002

Oil rich, politically turbulent Central Asia finds itself at the center of a new great game of power politics. Both China and Russia, the two dominant powers of mainland Asia, regard this subregion of transitional states as part of their “near abroad.” Since September 11 and the ensuing war on terrorism, Central Asia’s geopolitics have been further complicated by the new military presence of the United States, whose troops are now stationed in China’s and Russia’s backyard.

Slow Western Aid Could Undermine Afghan Stability

by Ahmed Rashid | Jul 1, 2002

Western aid is not reaching Afghanistan at the same pace that President Hamid Karzai is setting in his efforts to build a legitimate, ethnically balanced national army. Afghans are growing increasingly dissatisfied with the United States and the Karzai government, whose budget is running alarmingly short. With refugees desperate for aid and no foreign donors willing to underwrite major reconstruction efforts until spring 2003, Karzai’s aggressive initiatives to reduce regional warlords’ power face a severe test.

A Tall Order

by Gamal Nkrumah | Jul 1, 2002

This week’s official inauguration of the African Union (AU), which replaces the moribund Organization of African Unity (OAU), was held amid predictable fanfare. Yet despite high expectations, tensions between opposing factions are already threatening to sour celebrations marking the birth of an organization African leaders hope will advance African development and democracy. The danger is that underlying differences between some of the most powerful and influential of the 53 member states may return to haunt the AU should they remain unresolved.

Dirty Bomb Investigation Targets Central Asia and The Caucasus

by Mark Berniker | Jul 1, 2002

The May arrest of Jose Padilla, the Brooklyn-born Muslim accused of planning to build a radiological “dirty bomb” within the United States, has helped focus attention on the issue of access to radioactive materials. The Caucasus and Central Asia have emerged as a particular area of concern, as reliable controls over radioactive materials in those regions have broken down. U.S. officials are now pushing for better monitoring of such materials.