The much-ballyhooed conference on Somalia hosted by UK Prime Minister David Cameron on February 23 was long on grandstanding but short on new substance. The meeting was clearly more about crowning a new leader (Britain) and celebrating the limited military successes against Islamist militants than about building a foundation for peace.
Progress on the political roadmap to move Somalia out of conflict and toward stable, permanent, and representative government by August 2012 seems to be facing intractable barricades. The roadmap calls for the adoption of a new constitution by July, with parliamentary elections to take place in August of this year. With less than six months remaining and al-Shabab forces controlling much of the country, the likelihood of constituting a representative constituent assembly, finalizing a draft constitution, and conducting a national referendum is unrealistic if not impossible.
As a result of Kenya’s recent invasion of Somalia, the situation in Kenyan refugee camps has sharply deteriorated and is now on the verge of a full-scale humanitarian crisis. In Dadaab, the largest refugee camp on earth with close to half a million people, cholera has broken out, services have deteriorated, and access for both humanitarian agencies and international observers (including press) has become even more difficult.
U.S. support for the recent Kenyan invasion of Somalia is disheartening for a number of reasons. Perhaps most disturbing, though, is that it provides further proof of a U.S. policy toward Kenya that emphasizes short-term interests in counterterrorism at the expense of long-term commitments to peace and stability. As Kenya’s next national elections approach and the potential for renewed violence in the country increases, the United States can and should shift its priorities toward those that will foster sustainable Kenyan and regional security – rather than those that threaten to undermine it entirely.
In light of major upheavals across the Middle East and the shaky foundations of the global economy, Washington should realize that the last thing it needs is to be dragged into a new and even more destructive war. More importantly, pushing for further sanctions would only embolden Iran to reconsider its very membership in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), given Tehran’s increasing frustrations with the IAEA. The best solution is to channel this renewed sense of urgency into the diplomatic track by reviving talks and exploring the so-called “step-by-step” option proposed by Russia. This is the best way to avoid a global tragedy. There is still time for proper negotiation.
Kenya’s ill-advised incursion into Somalia on Oct. 16 after a rash of kidnappings in the tourist paradise of Lamu will most likely lead to a long and expensive quagmire. The escalation will further destabilize a region already reeling from war, piracy, famine, and international terrorism.
An informal competition took place during the Bush years for the title of “second front” in the war on terror. Administration officials often referred to Southeast Asia as the next major franchise location for al-Qaeda, with the Philippines in particular slated to become the “next Afghanistan.” Then there was the border between Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay, which State Department officials termed a “focal point for Islamic extremism in Latin America.” Worried about the spread of al-Qaeda operatives in North Africa, the Bush administration also developed the Pan-Sahel Initiative, which became the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Initiative before finally being folded into the Pentagon’s new Africa Command.
Political instability within Somalia and the actions of the international community are closely connected. By supporting regional actors inside Somalia, instead of supporting the federal government, the international community is contributing to the centrifugal forces that keep the country weak, violent, and in a prolonged humanitarian crisis.
On July 22, 2011 the newly appointed Somali Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali, a Harvard-trained professor of economics, announced his 49-member cabinet. There are only two women in it: one minister and one vice minister. Yet, Somali women and children are the primary victims of ongoing conflict and deepening drought and famine in Somalia. According to UNICEF, a child dies every six minutes in the areas hard hit by drought in the Horn of Africa. In addition, all international studies show that women and children are the most vulnerable groups in societies under stress.
The excessive violence with which Ugandan security forces have over the last month cracked down on initially peaceful opposition protests at soaring food and fuel prices, and which last weekovershadowed the inauguration of re-elected President Yoweri Museveni, is almost as puzzling as it is disturbing.