Terrorism
Contagion Effect Taking Hold in Latin America
Washington and the IMF badly underestimated the regional contagion from the Argentine disaster. It is now spreading along both financial and political channels, threatening more defaults and challenges to U.S. regional hegemony. Financial markets view Uruguay and Brazil as headed for default. Uruguay’s foreign reserves have fallen this year by more than half. Despite a hurried $3 billion IMF loan in June, risk premium on Uruguayan government bonds still hovered around 13%, with Moody downgrading the sovereign bonds and the foreign currency liabilities of the country’s banks to near junk levels. After Brazil in June drew $10 billion of its $15 billion IMF standby to stanch capital flight, accompanied by messages of full confidence from IMF Executive Director Horst Koehler and U.S. Treasury Secretary O’Neill, Brazilian dollar bonds still carried a 15% risk premium and a Standard & Poor B+ rating–on a par with Senegal and Jamaica.
Powell Punts in South Asia
Neither U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell nor any other observers expected the Secretary’s visit to South Asia to produce a breakthrough in the tense standoff between the region’s nuclear-armed rivals. Powell’s failure to obtain any assurances of further concessions by either side cannot therefore said to be a disappointment. Surprisingly, however, the Secretary of State did make news. In India he called for India to allow international observers when it holds elections in Jammu and Kashmir this fall, and reportedly declared that Kashmir is now “on the international agenda.” In Pakistan he expressed the hope that these elections in Indian Kashmir would open the way for peace. Taken together the statements indicated an evolving U.S. position that neither likes–one that essentially ignores Pakistani calls for a plebiscite to determine the wishes of Kashmiris, while questioning India’s right to determine unilaterally that Kashmiri aspirations had been met.
U.S.-Russian Lessons for South Asia
The current South Asian crisis seems to have ebbed, but the underlying dynamic remains. The next crisis will be even more dangerous if South Asia’s nuclear confrontation develops in the same direction as the U.S.-Russian standoff, with nuclear missiles on alert, aimed at each other and ready to launch on warning. As Lee Butler, former head of the U.S. Strategic Command, has said, the U.S. and Soviet Union survived their crises, “no thanks to deterrence, but only by the grace of God.” Will South Asia be so fortunate?
Australia’s Unseemly Grovel to a Worrying Ally
During his recent trip to the United States Australian Prime Minister John Howard, in only the latest example of his blind loyalty to the United States, moved hastily to endorse the first strike (or “pre-emptive attack”) doctrine proposed by President Bush. This doctrine could be used to justify a preemptive nuclear strike by the United States. Although American concern with defending itself against further terrorist attacks is understandable, Washington still needs not only to abide by international rules, as set out in the UN Charter, but also to show the rest of the world the example of a responsible global citizen. In today’s world there is a strong emphasis on collective security, which, implicitly, means that no government, however powerful, should assume the right to use nuclear or biological weapons against another state or terrorist group, at least, in an emergency, without the endorsement of the Security Council. Personally I believe that the long-running principle of no first strike should still be observed. It helped keep nuclear weapons under control in the cold war, and should still apply today. But that limitation is not what Mr. Bush, Dick Cheney, and Donald Rumsfeld have in mind. It is yet another example of the Bush policy of placing the United States outside the United Nations and its laws.
Sustainable Farming: Faulty Lessons From America
There isn’t a time when an educated Indian doesn’t search for answers from “America–the dream land” for the problems that crop up time and again back home. Whether it is hunger, sustainable agriculture, kick-starting industrial growth, food habits, music, or of course the successful model of economic growth, India must follow the Americans. No wonder, the intelligentsia, the economists, and the scientists are always desperate for opportunities to travel and return with a bag full of answers to our multitude of problems.
Nuclear Brinkmanship Is Not Deterrence
“Be ready for sacrifice. Your goal should be victory. It’s time to fight a decisive battle.” Thus spoke India’s Prime Minister Vajpayee on May 23, 2002, four years to the month since India’s nuclear tests shook the world but excited dancing in New Delhi’s streets. So much for nuclear weapons as a deterrent against war. General Musharraf, for his part, said that Pakistan did not want war, but “if war is thrust upon us, we would respond with full might.” Full might, when there are nuclear weapons on both sides, could mean tens of millions of people dead and severely injured, with India devastated and Pakistan essentially wiped out. What, then, would be left of Kashmir to fight over?
Blaming the Victim in Argentina
As is its wont, the IMF justifies its hard line on Argentina by placing full responsibility for the disaster on government mismanagement and corruption. It insists that Argentina must balance its fiscal budget, claiming that chronic deficits have been at the root of the excessive run-up of hard currency debt that produced the defaults. Indeed, to resume servicing that debt so as to regain access to the global financial markets, primary fiscal surpluses were essential. Without the fiscal turnaround, the IMF argues, additional credits would be throwing good money after bad.
The Return of Betancourt: Hostage-taking in Focus
After five months of waiting, Colombians received news last week that former presidential candidate, Ingrid Betancourt, was indeed alive, at least as of May 15. The news came through a televised video apparently recorded on that date at an undisclosed jungle location. The video featured an exhausted Betancourt still at the hands of the FARC, the largest rebel group in the country. Betancourt’s abduction and that of her campaign manager, Clara Rojas, took place on February 23 as they traveled by car to San Vicente de Caguan. Her purpose in San Vicente, newly returned to government control, was to meet with the mayor, a member of her reform-oriented “Oxygen” party, and hold a human rights rally to reassure frightened villagers in the region.
Treaty for the Rights of Women Deserves Full U.S. Support
In a recent address, President Bush declared, “A thriving nation will respect the rights of women, because no society can prosper while denying the opportunity to half its citizens.” The Arab Human Development Report, released in July, cited the lack of empowerment of women as one of the primary causes of the development gap between Arab countries and the rest of the world. Never before has the international community so strongly embraced the connection between the status of women’s human rights and the stability of a society as a whole.