Transitional Federal Government
UK Takes the Lead in Somalia

UK Takes the Lead in Somalia

The much-ballyhooed conference on Somalia hosted by UK Prime Minister David Cameron on February 23 was long on grandstanding but short on new substance. The meeting was clearly more about crowning a new leader (Britain) and celebrating the limited military successes against Islamist militants than about building a foundation for peace.

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A Bumpy Road for the Somali Roadmap

A Bumpy Road for the Somali Roadmap

Progress on the political roadmap to move Somalia out of conflict and toward stable, permanent, and representative government by August 2012 seems to be facing intractable barricades. The roadmap calls for the adoption of a new constitution by July, with parliamentary elections to take place in August of this year. With less than six months remaining and al-Shabab forces controlling much of the country, the likelihood of constituting a representative constituent assembly, finalizing a draft constitution, and conducting a national referendum is unrealistic if not impossible.

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Memo to the Somali Government

Imagine a reconciliation process in Iraq that fails to include militias or Sunni and Shia hardliners? How about a reconciliation process in Afghanistan that sidelines violent Pashtos in the south? The chances of either process succeeding would be slim. In both cases, the excluded parties comprise a powerful majority and thus must be included for reconciliation to produce a lasting peace. Keep anyone out and they are bound to want in. That type of exclusion is exactly what is being proposed in Somalia. The country remains in turmoil following the U.S.-backed Ethiopian invasion in December that toppled the Islamic Courts Union. Ethiopian troops continue to fight resistance in the capital Mogadishu and elsewhere in the country. Yet, amid this violence, Somali leaders in the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) refuse to include the former Islamic leadership, along with other sectors of society, in forthcoming talks. This grave mistake is bound to instigate further violence, much like Mogadishu has witnessed in the last months as hundreds have died in clashes in the city. As long as the current Somali government continues to exclude parties that are more popular than the TFG, Ethiopia, and the United States combined, reconciliation will be a mere façade.

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The Future of Political Islam in Somalia

The United States, fearing a new Taliban had come to power in Somalia, recently did what many expected it would do: invade Somalia. Not directly though. In the final weeks of 2006, Ethiopian forces that were trained, financed, and outfitted by the United States pounded Somalia’s capital and port cities with air attacks, routing the poorly equipped militias of the Islamic leadership.

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