Against the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas War and the current ceasefire, the Trump administration has suggested removing Palestinians from Gaza to other countries, such as Jordan, Egypt, Indonesia, and potentially others. Using the justification of the thorough destruction of Gaza and the timeline it would take to reconstruct the Strip, Washington wants Islamic countries to share the burden of the war.
However, the potential plan to remove Palestinians from the Gaza Strip faces pushback not only from Jordan and Egypt but also from the Arab League and human rights organizations, which see the move as ethnic cleansing.
Further Destabilization in Jordan
The Kingdom of Jordan, which currently has great relations with Israel and a permanent contingent of U.S. forces in the country, has a dark past with displaced Palestinians. In the aftermath of Israel’s decisive victory during the Six Day War, the West Bank came under Israeli control, creating an even larger refugee crisis in the Kingdom.
The Jordanian government struggled to accommodate the Palestinians. Already economically strapped and war-weary, Amman attempted to maintain a delicate power balance as fellow Arab states still wanted war. The Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) became impatient with Jordan’s neutrality towards further armed conflict with Israel and started a deadly insurgency.
Starting with assassinations of politicians and the military, the PLO killed the Jordanian prime minister in 1960 and later nearly killed King Hussein. Furthermore, the PLO staged brazen plane hijackings and bombed commercial airliners in Jordan, bringing the Kingdom to a breaking point.
In response to the deadly insurgency, the Jordanian government authorized the military to lead a brutal crackdown known as Black September, which led to over 50,000 deaths. Negotiating to stop the fighting, Egyptian Premier Abdel Nasser created the Cairo Agreement, which saw the PLO and their heavy weapons move to a growingly unstable Lebanon, which exacerbated sectarian tensions and precipitated a new Lebanese Civil War.
Pushing Palestinians in Gaza into Jordan could have detrimental effects on Jordan’s already fragile government. Many Jordanians are sympathetic to the plight of Palestinians, and major protests with pro-Hamas banners took place as King Abdullah II kept his country out of the ongoing conflict. Hamas militants could also start over again when relocated to Jordan.
Jordan’s military is small, and the Kingdom, already suffering from major socioeconomic issues, could see even greater stresses if Trump forced King Abdullah into taking in more Palestinians. A civilian uprising could lead to the removal of the pro-Western Hashemites with a new, more hostile government on the borders of Israel, Iraq, Syria, and Saudi Arabia.
Syria and Iraq are still reeling from decades of war. The region could not afford a destabilized Jordan as it could create a powder keg, like the one that al-Qaeda once took advantage of during the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia will not allow Hamas or pro-Hamas sympathizers on its borders as Riyadh has previously suffered from an al-Qaeda insurgency and from Houthi attacks from Yemen.
Ruining the Camp David Accords
A removal of Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt could also push the Egyptian government into hostilities with the United States and Israel. Akin to Jordan, Egypt faces socioeconomic problems spiraling out of control.
President Sisi’s government struggles to maintain the socioeconomic order in the face of a rapidly rising population. Sisi’s government is already embroiled in failed projects such as a new capital, human rights abuses, and allegations of corruption and embezzlement.
Sisi’s government previously faced a major al-Qaeda and ISIS insurgency in the Sinai Peninsula that killed thousands. It sealed the Egyptian border near Rafah for fear of Islamist organizations such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad infiltrating the country. Furthermore, Egypt also faces a growingly radicalized population and resource conflicts, such as the one with Ethiopia over the GERD dam.
Over the past several years, Egypt’s and Israel’s relations have soured despite the landmark Camp David Accords peace deal. Though this deterioration in relations has not led to another armed conflict, a forceful removal of Palestinians to Gaza could force Sisi to react. Cairo could choose to quietly arm or share intelligence with militant groups hostile to Israel. Or it could opt for direct armed conflict. A war between Israel and Egypt in the twenty-first century would be devastating as both countries have rapidly militarized their armed forces, and it would be of utmost importance to the Trump administration not to inflame tensions between both countries.
Legal and International Repercussions
President Trump’s potential removal of Palestinians could come under scrutiny in legal terms. Already facing legal pushback from the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice, both the American and Israeli governments could face allegations of ethnic cleansing if the population of Gaza is removed and not allowed to return. This would put the United States in the same category as Russia, which has forcibly deported hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and not allowed them to return to their homes in the occupied territories.
Without guarantees that Palestinians in Gaza could return, Washington would be sending a message to any country and rogue regime that deportations and ethnic cleaning would be okay—upending the international order the United States helped found after World War II.
Trump wants to continue his landmark Abraham Accords and add Saudi Arabia to the list of countries recognizing Israel. However, the Saudis recently stated they would not accept the forceful removal of Palestinians from Gaza.
Maintaining over two million Gazans between both Jordan and Egypt under Trump’s plan would require tens of billions in international aid for refugee camps along with makeshift schools and hospitals, as it would take two decades just to rebuild Gaza. The Arab League, already rejecting the plan, will not help out. Therefore, Americans would ultimately have to foot the bill.
Furthermore, the potential for an armed uprising or insurgency in both countries, which would threaten the regional balance of power, could require more U.S. troops in the region, which the general public would be against.