Current U.S. policies of indecisive actions, populism, and turbulence in internal politics have long-reaching consequences on various regions. America is leaving behind a power vacuum that will eventually be filled.
In Africa, Ukraine, and the Middle East, particularly Syria, Turkey is stepping in as the United States steps out, in so doing becoming one of the world’s top military powers and diplomatic brokers. Exerting influence in several regions, Ankara looks to be a major player with an independent foreign policy that does not need a green light from Washington, Beijing, or Moscow.
The Middle East
Against the backdrop of the rise of the Islamic State, relations between the United States and Turkey began to sour. Ankara would not allow U.S. forces to use joint bases for strikes against the extremist organization. At the same time, to battle the Islamic State, America supported Kurdish forces, some of which are proscribed terrorist organizations in Turkey.
Starting to create its independent foreign policy, Turkey took the lead in various regional conflicts, albeit still keeping formal diplomatic relations with America, as the two countries represent the top military powers in the NATO alliance.
During the ongoing yet fragile ceasefire in Gaza, the Biden administration praised Turkey for keeping Hamas at the negotiating table when it wanted to walk away from talks. Having alienated much of the Arab world and losing the support of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps due to significant losses against Israel, Hamas will rely increasingly on Turkey—as well as Qatar and Egypt—as its top negotiators.
Turkey is also heavily invested in Syria, as the spillover from this decades-long turmoil has heavily affected the Turkish border and economy from the surge in Syrian refugees to the border reinforcement against against both the Islamic State and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Turkey would militarily intervene in 2016 and several other times up until 2022.
After Russia’s intervention helped Bashar al-Assad and his Iranian allies reclaim much of Syria from 2015 to 2019, Turkey helped broker a ceasefire to freeze the conflict. However, during the frozen years of 2019 to mid-2024, the unwillingness of Syria and Russia to resolve the refugee crisis prompted Turkey to coordinate with various Syrian rebel groups to resume military operations against the Assad regime. Two weeks after rebel factions led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a major offensive in November, the disorganized, unmotivated, and overstretched Syrian army collapsed, and Assad fled the country.
Turkey would immediately take a guardian role over the new HTS-led transitional government while simultaneously giving the green light to its top proxy, the Syrian National Army (SNA), to conduct operations against the Kurdish SDF. Furthermore, Ankara is investing heavily in the new government’s energy, transportation, and defense sectors.
Africa
Various wars have broken out on the African continent that have implications for ethnic cleansing, genocide, and future geopolitical quagmires over resources such as water.
In Libya, several factions emerged to vie for power after the collapse of the Muammar Gaddafi regime, including rogue general Khalifa Haftar, who declared war on the internationally recognized Government of National Accords (GNA) in Tripoli. Haftar, backed by Russian mercenaries like the notorious Wagner Group, attempted to press forward and overrun the GNA-held headquarters of Tripoli from 2019 to 2020.
Turkey would formally intervene, sending thousands of fighters from their SNA proxies in Syria, along with dozens of experienced advisers and major logistics such as Bayraktar TB2 drones. Turkey’s intervention stopped Haftar’s Russian-backed forces, leaving behind hundreds of casualties, including in the Wagner Group. Since the Turkish intervention, Libya’s situation has calmed without major fighting for now.
In the Horn of Africa, tensions have risen between Ethiopia and Somalia as the former recognizes the breakaway state of Somaliland in a deal for direct access to the Red Sea to sustain and supply its fast-rising population.
At the same time, a conflict has deepened between Ethiopia and Egypt over the resources of the Blue Nile. Much of the hydroelectric power from the Blue Nile now runs through the finished Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Egypt sees as a major national security threat. Egypt has threatened to strike the GERD numerous times, generating fears of another major conventional war in Africa.
Turkey has quietly led negotiations between Somalia and Ethiopia, inviting delegates from each country to Ankara to discuss a roadmap to peace.
Ukraine
During the first few months of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Turkey played a major role as a top mediator even as it was sending major arms to Kyiv. The Turkish government supplied Kyiv with Bayraktars drones, which decimated large columns of Russian infantry in the early weeks of the war. Due to a major air defense presence, Bayraktars are currently used for the surveillance of Russian troop movements, and the Baykar corporation currently plans to create a post-war manufacturing plant in Ukraine.
Furthermore, Turkish naval manufacturing companies are rebuilding a future navy for Ukraine, beginning with two Ada-class corvettes. Turkey is a major supporter of Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty. In particular, because of Russia’s persecution of Crimean Tatars, which are related to Turks, Turkey has recognized Crimea as Ukrainian territory.
Turkey and Russia compete for dominance in the Black Sea, and a strong Ukraine can serve as a hedge against Russian power. With its rising defense industry, Turkey can fill some of the gap in Ukraine if the United States reneges on its prior obligations.
Among current NATO members, Turkey has taken an independent and decisive foreign policy approach that seldom aligns with Washington. With American influence waning, particularly due to the growing isolationist MAGA movement, Turkey can now fully exert itself on the world stage.