For those concerned about a rising China, Southeast Asia is of particular interest. It is a region of diverse states and cultures that involves all the major powers in the Asia-Pacific in a multiplicity of strategic interests. It is thus a fluid arena, offering the potential of different strategic games, options, and uncertain outcomes, but without a significant crisis hotspot such as those in Northeast Asia.
The latest recruitment brochure from the Central Intelligence Agency, which beckons the uninitiated to Âbe a part of a mission that’s larger than all of us, opens to reveal an image of the red-roofed entrance to Beijing’s Forbidden City. From an oversized portrait on the ancient wall, Chairman Mao and his Mona Lisa smile behold the vast granite expanse of Tiananmen Square. The Cold War is over, and the Soviet Union is gone. The cloak-and-dagger games of Berlin and Prague have been replaced by business and tourism. But ChinaÂland of ancient secrets, autocratic leaders, and memories of suppressed uprisingsÂstill holds out the promise of world-historical struggle that can help the CIA meet its recruitment goals.
As part of our China Focus, we asked two leading scholars to reflect on the tensions and possibilities in U.S.-China relations. Bonnie Glaser is a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. James Nolt is a senior fellow at the World Policy Institute. We asked them first about the potential for a strategic security partnership between the United States and China, then about their economic relationship.
On June 4, 1989, the world watched in horror as the Chinese government’s crackdown on student protestors took a deadly turn. As Chinese soldiers fired their weapons indiscriminately and Chinese tanks rolled through Tiananmen Square, an unknown number of students and soldiers were killed. The Chinese military continued its campaign of terror throughout the summer of 1989, drawing strong international condemnation.
ÂThe world is investing too little, according to one prominent economist. ÂThe current situation has its roots in a series of crises over the last decade that were caused by excessive investment, such as the Japanese asset bubble, the crises in Emerging Asia and Latin America, and most recently, the IT bubble. Investment has fallen off sharply since, with only very cautious recovery.Â
The image of China in the Western press is less the dragon of the Celestial Kingdom than J.R.R Tolkien’s Smaug, a beast of enormous strength and cunning, ravaging oil markets in Africa, copper ore in South America, and uranium deposits in Australia. “The world begins to feel the dragon’s breath on its back,” intones the Financial Times.
Ostensibly, the growing threat of international terrorism is responsible for the Bush administration’s proposed 2007 military budget, of $439 billion: a 7-percent increase from last year’s record tally. Higher spending, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has indicated, would ensure U.S. success “in the long war against terrorist extremism.”
It is customary early in the New Year to recommend good books to read. And the Tao Te Ching should be at the top of President Bush’s list. Careening from crisis to crisis with approval ratings drooping, the president should consider the opening lines of chapter 80. “If a country is governed wisely, its inhabitants will be content.”
Key Points
Key Points