Middle East & North Africa

Lessons from Mombasa: Al Qaeda’s Long-term Strategy

An analysis of the status of al Qaeda published a month ago, entitled Is al Qaeda winning?, came to the conclusion that the organization had experienced disruption in Afghanistan as well as a number of recent reversals, but was, on balance, more active than 18 months ago. While major attacks in Paris, Rome, Singapore, and elsewhere had been prevented, their very planning demonstrated the power of the organization and its affiliates. Moreover, many other attacks had succeeded in their aims–not least the Bali bombing, the attack on the Tunisian synagogue, several bombings in Pakistan, and assaults in Yemen.

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The Oil Reckoning

It now seems clear, some would say abundantly clear, that the Bush administration is intent on terminating the Saddam Hussein regime, and it is frankly difficult to see how war will be prevented. All of the political signals coming out of Washington indicate a conflict within the next three months, and there are numerous indications that the final phase of the build-up of military forces is imminent.

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A Nightmare to Love

Imagine that Iraq continues to let UN arms inspectors inspect without impediment. By the December 8 deadline for reporting on its weapons of mass destruction, the Iraqi government makes an extensive declaration of activities and materials that might be used to make such weapons but also might have other purposes. The Iraqis then allow the inspectors to inspect all the sites they wish to enter. If the inspectors find some materials that might be used for weapons of mass destruction, they destroy them. The inspectors report to the Security Council; then most countries except the U.S. and Britain declare that, whether or not Iraq once had weapons of mass destruction, it no longer does. Enforcement of sanctions begins to crumble and world pressure to lift them builds.

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House of Cards

The recent dissolution of the National Unity Government in Israel should not come as a surprise to anyone closely following the Israeli political scene. The reason the unity government lasted so long was that it was comfortable for all parties involved. By keeping his opposing political party under his government umbrella Prime Minister Sharon was granted a much-needed degree of legitimacy in both internal and external politics. On the other hand, Labor party cabinet members found political relevance in their participation in Sharon’s government where, otherwise, their lack of ability to provide Israelis with an alternate national strategy would have consumed their few remaining political credits among Israeli voters. Israeli democracy will be sorely tested in the weeks to come, and to pass this test a bold, peace-oriented leadership must step forward.

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How the Democrats Blew It

With the country still mired in recession and polls consistently showing that the Republicans’ positions on such basic policy issues as the environment and the economy are decidedly unpopular, this should have been the Democrats’ year.

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Showdown and Compromise at the UN

Bismarck’s dictum that people who want to appreciate treaties and sausages should not watch them being made applies to Security Council resolutions as well. The U.S. is set to win Security Council support for a resolution on Iraq and is already calling it victory.

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Coming Home

Every time I hear the likes of Vice-President Cheney, Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, or Senator Lieberman go on about war with Iraq, it reminds me of a history lesson Congress should keep in mind when it begins its debate over Iraq: wars are waged with the bodies of the young, and they always come home.

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