Tuesday evening’s prime-time television address marking the withdrawal of all US “combat” troops from Iraq, as well as the following day’s formal launch here of direct talks between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, will be hailed by the administration as key advances in restoring some stability to the world’s most volatile region.
Only fifteen months after his historic Cairo speech, there are alarming signs that President Obama’s new engagement policy with the Middle East may soon find its place in history’s dustbin. The Obama administration’s withdrawal announcement of US “combat” troops from Iraq by the end of August is nothing more than a PR campaign to rename the occupation.
Only 20% of respondents in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) now view the US president positively, compared to 45% who did so in the spring of 2009, according to the 2010 Arab Public Opinion Poll conducted by Shibley Telhami of the Brookings Institution and the Zogby International polling firm.
For decades, the Persian Gulf region – subsumed under a latent Sunni-Shia divide – was animated by a drama of Iraq-Iran rivalry; each power balanced the other. The elimination of Saddam Hussein, by the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, introduced a new chapter in the regional affairs – Saudi Arabia and Iran as the twin pillars of the regional power-configuration. Historically, despite numerous efforts by each party to improve bilateral relations and deepen cooperation, Iran-Saudi relations have been fraught with intermittent rhetorical wars and grim strategic competition.
Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the United States’ old allies in the Mid-East’s southern are likely to wield less influence in the future than the northern tier, which includes Turkey, Iran, and Syria.
Iran’s nuclear program has become the centerpiece of global security discussions for the last 10 years. It is a main sticking point in the relationship between Iran — a key regional player — and western countries, and it has acquired oversized significance in the international war against extremism. Despite Obama’s promise for change, and greater emphasis on multilateralism and diplomacy, the specter of military confrontation between Iran on the one hand and either Israel or the United States on the other persistently looms over the horizon, even though the probability remains low.
Does the quest for Israel-Palestine pece still accord with U.S. interests? Is it still the key to Middle-East stability?
This century has witnessed China’s emergence as the main challenger to the superpower status of the United States. In a dramatic fashion, China is beginning to establish its foothold in the highly strategic, energy-rich region of the Middle East by forging strong ties with regional powers and gradually challenging the U.S.-Israeli regional dominance. Thanks to decades of double-digit economic growth and accelerating military modernization, China now has both the need for and the capability of engaging the Middle East.
In late August, the U.S. and Israeli governments appeared to have settled on a grand strategy to advance Middle East peace, one that traded a tougher U.S. stance on Iran for freezing Israeli settlement construction in the West Bank. But subsequent reports on plans for additional Israeli settlement construction and announcements by Tehran outlining its terms for talks at a September 9th, meeting of the P5+1 (that’s the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany) working group, indicate that the specific details of a bargain are still far from settled.
As the Obama administration struggles to devise a strategy for dealing with Iran’s intransigence on the uranium enrichment issue, it appears to be gravitating toward the imposition of an international embargo on gasoline sales to that country. Such a ban would be enacted if Iranian officials fail to come up with an acceptable negotiating plan by the time the UN General Assembly meets in late September — the deadline given by the White House for a constructive Iranian move.