Ten days before the Dutch elections, three parties of the 26 on the ballot were seriously in the running. There was the ruling People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) led by Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, a Green-Labour alliance (GL/PvdA) with Frans Timmermans, and New Social Contract (NSC), a brand-new party led by a popular former Christian Democrat MP Pieter Omtzigt.
But a week before the elections, the Party for Freedom of Geert Wilders made an unexpected jump to become a leading contender. The day before the elections almost half of the voters didn’t know whom to back. Many decided to opt strategically for one of forerunners.
The snap parliamentary election took place on November 22. An estimated 78.2 percent of 13.3 million eligible voters cast their ballots. And Wilders came from behind to win, causing right-wing forces at home and in Europe to rejoice and left voters around the world to tremble in fear. Wilders’s party got 37 seats, GL/PvdA 25, the VVD 24, and newcomer NSC 20 seats. Almost all the small parties lost. As it turned out, the left-wing coalition won only in the big cities of Amsterdam, Utrecht, Eindhoven, Leeuwarden, Groningen, and Haarlem.
The right-wing, anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders now has a good chance, if he manages to form a coalition, to lead a county that thinks of itself as a tolerant, pro-European land that punches above its weight on the international scene. .
Before the Elections
The main questions that dominated pre-election discussions were the polarization in the society, the cost of living, health care, the climate crisis, and the green transition (and who will pay for it). Agriculture and farming was also on the agenda since Netherlands is the world’s second largest exporter of meat and faces the challenge of reducing illegal nitrogen emission levels. Near the top of the list, however, was immigration, especially since the last government fell over a bill to reduce asylum seekers and immigration, including foreign workers,
Voters also registered a high level of mistrust in the government after 13 years of Mark Rutte and his government scandals. A major frustration has also been the Dutch housing crisis: according to one government-commissioned report, the country lacks 390,000 homes. Less discussed was a proposal by most parties that the Dutch royal family, one of the richest in Europe, should finally start to pay taxes. But only the left coalition called for higher taxes for corporations and the rich in general. .
The Netherlands is polarized, with major contrasts between city and countryside. In many cities, the priority was the climate crisis and the preservation of a tolerant, open society that respects human rights and the rule of law. The countryside opted for traditional values, the Netherlands for the Dutch, and the continuation of farming as usual. Climate change, according to many farmers, was just so much apocalyptic fake news.
The debate between the candidates on TV was heated. As journalist Rinskje Koelewijn described it, the studio was converted into an arena, with three hunters and one prey: Frans Timmermans.
The politicians only needed a little push to tap into their baser instincts… Dilan Yesilgöz hissed incessantly “but Mr. Timmermans” when Timmermans spoke. She shook her head, laughed at him, and said yes when he said nothing… When Yesilgöz and Timmermans were roaring at each other about whose side the middle class was better off with, Omtzigt told Wilders, “If it has to be that way, I will work with you,” whereupon he walked around the table to shake his hand…
Similar entertainment for the masses continued until the day of the elections.
Who Is Geert Wilders?
Geert Wilders started his political career as a member of parliament in 1998, first for the centrist VVD, where he mentored a young Mark Rutte, before setting up his own Party for Freedom in 2006. He has been a member of the Dutch parliament for 25 years but has been shut out of coalitions. He consistently demands an exit from the European Union as well as “closed borders” that should stop the “tsunami of asylum seekers and immigration.”
What made him notorious has been his inflammatory language—he has described Islam as a “totalitarian ideology” and called Moroccans “scum”—and his election program called for a ban on the Quran, mosques, and all Islamic schools, as well as on Islamic headscarves in government buildings. Several years ago, a court convicted him of insulting a group of people based on their background after he called for “fewer Moroccans” in a 2014 speech. His anti-Islam rhetoric has made him a target for extremists and led to his living under 24/7 protection for the past two decades. He doesn’t shy from offending other politicians as well, calling outgoing Finance Minister Sigrid Kaag a “witch” and fat-shaming his opponent, Frans Timmermans, during a debate.
Wilders is critical of climate scientists and believes that the government has spent too much on reducing CO2 emissions. He proposes to halt the construction of solar parks and wind turbines and advocates withdrawal of the Netherlands from the Paris climate agreement. But now, facing political reality and the need to gather more supporters, Wilders has hinted that he is ready to put his Islamophobic preoccupations on hold.
Journalist Frits Abrahams is not buying it: “Wilders pretends to have mellowed, but it is pure opportunism. He wants to govern, not to solve the housing shortage and other social issues—all of which have never really interested him—but to fight Islam and keep out asylum seekers.” Hassnae Bouazza agrees “After twenty years of presenting himself with the dirtiest, most racist rubbish, he announced that he wanted to be a prime minister for all Dutch people. It’s as if after years of domestic violence, you’re told: let’s try again.”
The Also-Rans
Frans Timmermans of the left coalition had great ambitions: to increase the minimum wage, raise taxes on big companies and high earners, invest in clean energy, form “citizen councils,” cap rents, and boost social housing. His supporters skewed younger and more educated. One poll put the Labour-Green leader as favourite for the role of prime minister among 18-34 years old citizens.
Since he didn’t manage to rock the Dutch boat in a progressive direction, he is preparing to play his role in the Dutch opposition. His left coalition raised its joint seat count from 17 to 25. But that was far from enough. Now he vows to “never enter into a coalition with a party that excludes Dutchmen.” He added: “Let’s make a fist against exclusion.” He was the big winner only in Amsterdam and some other cities, but not in The Hague.
Pieter Omtzigt is a crusading former Christian Democrat MP best known for his role in uncovering the child benefit scandal that brought down the Rutte-led government in 2021. Months later, Omtzigt left the Christian Democrats and took several months off work for exhaustion and burnout. He returned with his brand-new party NCS and a platform to cut immigration, reform taxes, and improve financial security for low-income families. The public perceived him as a warrior for a just cause who battles the forces of evil embodied in the not-so-nice mainstream politicians. But, as it has often been reported, Omtzigt has very conservative ideas, and not only about women’s rights. He is also very concerned about the number of international students in the country and the anglicisation of Dutch higher education.
Dilan Yesilgöz-Zegerius, the outgoing justice minister, heads up the pro-market, liberal VVD. She came to the Netherlands as a child refugee but aims to slash migration, introduce a two-tier refugee system, abolish permanent residency, and allow citizenship only after 10 years. On her agenda is also the curbing of rents and the boosting of private housebuilding. Whenever she hears criticism of the Rutte cabinet, her mantra has been “I prefer not to look back.” Even though many VVD voters welcomed an eloquent female prime minister with a foreign background, she resembled Mark Rutte a little bit too much for the general electorate.
Reactions
The election results provoked boisterous reactions. The world media referred to Wilders’s victory as a “shock win” and a “dramatic victory.” Politico headlined its article, “Geert Wilders is the EU’s worst nightmare.” Thousands of demonstrators gathered in Amsterdam, Utrecht, Leiden, and Nijmegen with banners such as: “Fuck PVV, no fascist as prime minister.”
Meanwhile, Wilders’s friends rushed to congratulate him: Marine Le Pen of France, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, and far-right Flemish independence leader Tom Van Grieken. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán said that “the winds of change are here.”
NRC, the highly respected Dutch daily, editorialized:
Rarely has an election result divided the Netherlands more than the monster victory of Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom… which for almost twenty years has consistently advocated a policy of anti-Europe, the rigorous scrapping of climate measures, cuts in culture and above all: the exclusion of population groups based on religion and origin. That is, and remains, downright unconstitutional and reprehensible….Voters do not want a stronger Europe, want nothing to do with international cooperation and prefer to turn a blind eye to violence inflicted on civilians in war zones…If the tradition holds that the largest party will actually govern, a radical right-wing coalition awaits the Netherlands.
Not all agree with the NRC. Emeritus professor of law Paul Cliteur argues that Wilders can only transform the country if he orchestrates deeper change: “Only when the PVV produces mayors, rectors of universities, professors, civil servants and museum directors, will the change be definitive,” he opined. “Oh, and a different wind in the media, of course.”
Spinoza Is Out of the Game
The majority of Dutch voters don’t want to talk any more about climate and nitrogen emissions. Or, if they do, it is only to stress that climate change is not so important (after all, the water is still not around their ankles) and that farmers shouldn’t face many restrictions. Most of all, they are focused on their own economic situation and a return to some mystical time when it was clear who the Dutch are.
As Rob Wijnberg states in De Correspondent:
Progress, according to the nostalgic nationalists, is a return to that past: the past before globalization, when foreigners still lived “far away,” the housing shortage was not yet an “import product” of mass immigration and national borders kept our problems at bay…. [It’s a] past that never really existed and, moreover, cannot return. But it does have an attraction, accounting for 74 million American votes for a pathological liar, 17 million British votes for an exit from the European Union, 14 million Argentine votes for a far-right climate denier…
Simply put, the Dutch want better salaries, available homes, and fewer “foreign elements,” be it immigrants or the EU. Immigrants are blamed for being too numerous and too “different,” and for taking homes in a tight market. The EU is blamed for requiring a lot of funds for climate regulations and arming countries at war. Net migration in 2022 was 223,000, more than double the rate of the previous year, mainly due to a big influx of Ukrainian refugees.
In one of the final debates prior to the election, Wilders said he would not support sending Ukraine more money and weapons. Those resources, he said, are needed for the Dutch army. The country’s outgoing government has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine and has just allocated over €2 billion in aid for Kyiv. But for voters, immigrants are too close and Ukraine too far away. Their logical conclusion is: let’s close the borders and focus on ourselves no matter how xenophobic it may seem to others.
During the 2019 provincial elections, which had the highest turnout in 30 years, the Forum for Democracy (FvD) led by right-wing populist Thierry Baudet won 86 seats spread across the 12 provinces. They were perceived as a “new force” ready and capable to make some waves. Today, Wilders is the “refreshing and new” leader who will fight “for the Dutch.” But the question remains, what is “new and refreshing” in his program and who does he consider Dutch.
For centuries, the Netherlands was a haven for those running from wars, seeking refuge and a safe place. It was a haven for free thinkers and rebels. Even Spinoza, with his glorification of tolerance as a virtue, would have a hard time fitting in today. The country has changed. Wilders is who he is, but now more than two million Dutch people want to follow him. In the last election, the left didn’t come up with a convincing narrative on immigration, the war in Ukraine, and rampant consumerism that could inspire ordinary citizens to embrace radical change.
What Coalition?
A government needs 76 seats of the 150 seats in the Dutch parliament to form a majority. Coalition government has been the rule in the Netherlands for more than a century, marked by concessions and compromises.
From the beginning, Frans Timmermans clearly stated that his left alliance had no intention of forming a coalition with the PVV. Dilan Yeşilgöz indicated early in the campaign that she could potentially enter coalition talks with Wilders, but changed her mind, which generated a despairing response from Wilders and criticism from the ranks of her own party. Pieter Omtzigt also made clear that he will not go into government with Wilders, because “as a party you can only form a government that sticks to classic fundamental rights.” However, after Wilders said in his victory speech that he intends to abide by the Constitution, Omtzigt was “very happy.” More than 70 percent of his party do not think it is a problem if NSC enters a cabinet with Wilders as prime minister. But his decision is still on hold.
Of the smaller parties, Caroline van der Plas’ BBB (Farmer-Citizen Movement) would like to be on board. In March, her right-wing populist BBB stormed to victory in provincial elections and became the biggest party in the Dutch senate. The momentum has fallen away, but the BBB could feature in the next government, adding to the fight against stricter climate measures and for imposing a refugee quota. And Thierry Baudet, whose FVD dropped to only three seats, hopes that it will be possible to form a right-wing government. “If we can contribute to this in some way, we will of course be happy to do so,” he announced on X.
To replace his initial negotiator, who resigned after claims of fraud surfaced, Wilders found Ronald Plasterk, former minister of education, on short notice. If Plasterk can persuade Dilan Yeşilgöz and VVD to have another change of heart, Wilders will be able to easily form a right-wing government with VVD, NSC, and BBB. He wrote on X: “2.4 million people voted for us. High and low educated, native and immigrant, employed, retired, young and old. From the city, the countryside. The PVV is there for everyone.”
But not everyone is there for the PVV. If Wilders fails to form a coalition, another party could be invited to try, which would be good news for the more than 7 million voters that chose anyone but Wilders.