The recent military budget increases in East Asia are motivated by various factors—flash point-driven, hedging strategy-driven, or governance-driven—but they do necessarily trigger an arms race in the region. Domestic politics within Japan, South Korea, China, and the United States have had a complicated impact on regional security. Furthermore, the potential crisis points on the Korean peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait are also driving factors that test the stability of the region. Despite competing interests and challenges, the U.S.-led system seems to be enduring and a great-power rivalry stemming from the increases in military spending between the United States and China appears unlikely.

The arms spending in Asia attracted media attention in the early 1990s in large part because it was seemingly anomalous. The rest of the world was scaling back or, at least, considering doing so. In Northeast Asia, between 1989 and 1994, both South Korea and China increased their military spending by double digits—19 percent—while Japan increased expenditures by a more modest 9 percent. The countries of Southeast Asia—Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore—were on a spending spree. In contrast, Russia decreased spending during that period rather dramatically (because of the collapse of its economy). And the United States, a Pacific power tied to Northeast Asia through bilateral alliances, reduced spending by 21 percent.