In his 2005 book The World Is Flat, Thomas Friedman joined a chorus of economists who touted India as the latest development success story, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. While India has developed a middle class with disposable income for the first time in recent history, such growth has not been accompanied by meaningful poverty reduction.
The opening scene of Mr. and Mrs. Iyer (2002) comes as a shock to the seasoned Bollywood enthusiast. A montage of news reports flickers across the screen. Images from 9/11, the murder of Daniel Pearl, America’s invasion of Iraq, and the most recent sectarian violence in Gujarat confront the unsuspecting viewer.
Iran’s provocative missile tests ten days ago again fueled the debate on the likelihood of aerial strikes against Iran. Since last week’s thaw, however, an attack on Iran by the end of President Bush’s tenure no longer appears in the offing. Moreover, the narrow, exclusively military focus of the debate misses the broader picture. The overall U.S. strategy of containing Iran has failed in principle. And the attempt to impose a sanctions regime on Iran has led to an erosion of U.S. strategic influence in Asia and the Middle East. Over the long term, Washington’s shortsighted containment policy will only hurt Western business in the region. It will also play into the hands of China, drive crucial allies away, and render Iran untouchable.
It has taken America’s leaders a long time to learn the lessons of nuclear weapons. President Harry Truman, who took the decision to bomb Hiroshima and Nagasaki called the atomic bomb the “greatest thing in history.” Almost 20 years later, with America having lost its nuclear monopoly, trapped in a desperate growing arms race with the Soviet Union, and having survived a crisis that threatened nuclear war, President John F. Kennedy described the bomb as having turned the world into a prison in which man awaits his execution. Fast forward another two decades, under pressure from peace movements, President Ronald Reagan agreed with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that the superpowers should eliminate all nuclear weapons.
For the past few months it seems that New Delhi has been shrouded in a thick, meandering fog. For the auto rickshaw drivers and fruit vendors, the intelligentsia and the elite who occupy the steamy Gangetic Plains, the fog has become, as all things in India must, symbolic of an uncertain future. A Pakistan on the verge of doom? An Olympic China who this summer will put India in the shadows? An increasingly bellicose Russia? Wrong on all counts.
The Indian government suddenly finds itself under intense and mounting U.S. pressure to complete a nuclear agreement during the present U.S. administration. “We don’t have all the time in the world,” Nicholas Burns bluntly said this month. One of the chief architects of the agreement and the U.S. undersecretary for political affairs, Burns was referring to the India-specific agreements with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and change of rules at the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) that are necessary for the export of nuclear plants and equipment to India. He reminded the Indians that “this is an election year” in the USA and hoped “very much that this process can now be completed.” David C. Mulford, U.S. ambassador in New Delhi, similarly pressed for the conclusion of the agreement during the Bush administration. He suggested that it is almost “now or never” for New Delhi to get behind such a deal before non-proliferation groups force additional conditionalities.
Israel’s spy satellite launched by India in the third week of January considerably enhances Israel’s intelligence-gathering capability. The launch of the Tecsar satellite, also known as Polaris, also marks a new stage in India-Israeli strategic relations and adds a new factor in the complex security scenario in the Middle East.
Since 2004, the Indian and Pakistani governments have pursued a peace process centered on the disputed province of Kashmir. Among the key issues discussed has been that of the Siachen Glacier, the world’s highest battleground, located in the Kashmir region. While there has been a ceasefire in effect on the glacier since November 2003, thousands of soldiers still confront each other across the icy terrain. At present, the Indian Army occupies the dominant positions on the Saltoro Ridge, on the western edge of the glacier, while the Pakistani army is stationed at lower positions. Most of the several thousand casualties on the glacier, where temperatures drop beneath 50 degrees below zero Celsius in the winter, have been weather-related rather than through physical violence.
From the U.S. foreign policy perspective, settlement of the Siachen dispute would be a significant step in defusing tensions between two crucial allies. Islamabad has been an important partner of Washington, especially since 9/11, while the U.S. and India have embarked on a strategic partnership, most notably by signing a nuclear cooperation agreement.
The United States and India are turning a new chapter in world history as they seek to close a deal on civil nuclear cooperation and nonproliferation. Referred to as the “123” agreement, negotiations have been in the works since 2005. While there have been some roadblocks put up on the deal from members of India’s parliament in recent weeks, both parties hope to have a final agreement approved by the end of the year.
Noam Chomsky is a noted linguist, author, and foreign policy expert. On April 26, Michael Shank interviewed him about relations between India and Pakistan. This is the second part of a two-part interview. The first part, on the Iraq War, the World Bank, and debt, can be found here.