The standoff between Mali’s government and the armed Islamists who control two-thirds of the country is unlikely to resolve peacefully, and the prospects for a new war in the Sahel appear increasingly probable.
Though better armed, Tuareg fighters in Mali have been driven from the capital of their autonomous state of “Azawad.”
The gains of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party and the Salafist al-Nour Party in the 2011-2012 parliamentary elections, as well as the Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi’s first-place showing in the presidential election, demonstrate that Egypt’s Islamists carry widespread support throughout the country. Nonetheless, the surge of enthusiasm for Hamdeen Sabahi, which placed him third in the presidential election (fewer than 5 points behind Morsi), demonstrates the growing strength of Nasserism in post-Mubarak Egypt.
Despite what Christian fundamentalists wish, religion and politics are unlikely to become one in the United States.
The Egyptian electoral results, as in similar elections in Tunisia, Palestine, Iraq, and Turkey, suggest that in any fair and transparent elections in the Islamic world, Islamist parties and their affiliates can easily win at least 40 percent of the votes. In fact, in the case of Egypt, Islamist parties together won over 77 percent of the seats. These results can be used as predictors of future elections in other Arab and Islamic countries in the area. The question, then, is no longer whether Islamists can win a majority in elections, but which strain of Islamism and by how much.
The hysteria of the West about the Arab awakening turning into an Arab Islamist nightmare is reaching full-blown proportions. The United States and Israel, self-appointed referees of democracy in the region despite their long-running support for the Middle East’s most corrupt and authoritarian regimes, are crying foul.
The incitement? A series of victories by Islamist parties in Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt. Yet, given the history of Western support for governments that simultaneously quashed secular opposition movements and persecuted Islamists, the popularity of moderate Islamist parties should come as little surprise—nor should it be cause for concern.
It’s easy to make fun of Michele Bachmann: her history gaffes, her Christian extremism, her ludicrous political positions. Journalists, though, would be sad to see her leave the Republican primary race, since she can be reliably counted on to make an outrageous statement to enliven a slow news day. Last week, for instance, she blamed the Arab Spring on the Obama administration. “You want to know why we have an Arab Spring?” she asked her audience at a Republican Party fundraiser in New Hampshire. “Barack Obama has laid the table for an Arab Spring by demonstrating weakness from the United States of America.”
The sudden defeat of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) by the Ethiopian army and their U.S. backers proved easier then expected. A reported 15,000 Ethiopian troops and U.S. aerial bombardment succeeded in installing the Transitional Federal Government, two years after its formation in neighboring Kenya.