After consolidating its domestic political position with an impressive third straight victory in the 2011 parliamentary elections, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) is poised to cement Turkey’s status as the prime indigenous power in the Middle East. As mass protests rock most of the region, including Israel, Turkey is increasingly holding itself up as an example of economic dynamism and democratic stability.
Syria, however repressive, can’t realistically be expected to cooperate with inquiries into its nuclear program after its reactor was bombed.
Invading Libya is about the oil, Syria — eliminating the only Russian naval base in the Mediterranean and weakening Hizbollah.
After a decade of policies aimed at marginalizing and ignoring the Syrian regime, U.S. policymakers have come to realize that they have very little leverage to pressure President Bashar Al-Assad. As the violence continues, Washington appears to be out of both carrots and sticks.
The Middle East faces a moment of truth as country after country rises up against its authoritarian leaders. No government is secure against the people-powered protest movements sweeping the region. These dramatic events will likely be the greatest U.S. foreign policy challenge over the next decade. The regional security framework — with new roles for Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, Syria, Israel, and the likely Palestinian state (or states) — is evolving, and Washington must reexamine how it defends its regional interests in a new way.
Although President Barack Obama’s May 19 address on U.S. Middle East policy had a number of positive elements, overall it was a major disappointment. His speech served as yet another reminder that his administration’s approach to the region differs in several important ways from that of his immediate predecessor, but he failed to consistently assert principled U.S. support for human rights, democracy, or international law.
Bashar’s crackdown on protesters has severely hurt the prospects of renewed U.S.-Syrian ties, at least in the near future. Therefore, the Obama administration is currently on the horns of a dilemma. It has condemned Assad’s crackdown on protestors. But the administration is not sure it should alienate him entirely.
As anti-government protests in Syria showed no sign of abating, the U.S. State Department Monday denied that it was seeking the regime’s ouster.
Regime change in Syria is an appealing idea, but Islamists stand ready to fill the vacuum in power.
Though not iron-fisted like his father, the hand that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad cracks down with is heavy.